Custom Economic Scenarios

Economic scenarios tailored to your unique business models, exposures, geographic footprint and assumptions.

Many firms seek to stress test the performance of their portfolios according to their unique idiosyncratic risks for compliance or strategic planning needs. Moody's Analytics produces plausible custom/idiosyncratic scenarios to enable firms to more realistically stress-test the performance of their portfolios.

Tailored to Your Unique Business Model and Geographpic Footprint

Scenarios are designed to reflect your portfolios, geographic footprint, unique exposures/assumptions and overall business model. We can leverage your existing stress testing and risk identification processes, including reverse stress testing, to inform your institution-specific scenario design. Our economists can build a complete scenario around your key risks or collaborate with you to specify a scenario. For example:

  • The individual and combined impacts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and/or Italy exiting the euro zone.
  • The global implications of a full euro-zone breakdown.
  • A recession triggered by a sharp slowdown in emerging economies.
  • A global crisis triggered by US fiscal issues.


  • Identify correlations between loss performance and economics.
  • Gain insight into specific risk factors to your firm's unique exposures.
  • Leverage a comprehensive set of detailed economic variables.
  • Access detailed methodology and our economists to support validation needs.
  • Choose from multiple delivery options to suit your needs.

Fully Transparent and Documented Methodology

Moody's Analytics methodology is fully documented. Model validation is also available and structured according to the guidelines provided by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Experienced Team of Economists

Moody's Analytics economists have extensive expertise in producing custom scenarios, leveraging best-in-class modeling and analytical expertise in national and regional data management and forecasting.