Forecast: U.S. Auto Residual Values

Quantitative Economic Forecasts of Car Values Under Scenarios

While firms estimate car prices using internal and third-party models, these often include a degree of subjectivity. As a result, these approaches can produce inaccurate, inconsistent, or biased values that can affect estimations and stress testing programs.

Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle solution provides purely quantitative forecasts of car prices under baseline and stressed scenarios, incorporating cyclical economic dynamics affecting the automotive industry. The solution offers a consistent and documented methodology for incorporating economic factors into residual forecasts by accounting for supply and demand drivers, seasonal effects and key macro variables such as gasoline prices.

Banks, captive finance, insurers, auto dealers, rental networks and other firms can evaluate plausible outcomes and mitigate risk for their portfolios of varying makes, models, mileage, years and features, at an 11-digit VIN level. AutoCycle can be used for multiple applications, including as a benchmark for setting future residual values, challenging third-party and internal models, identifying long-term influences on prices, creating competitive advantage, and regulatory stress testing.


  • Residual Price Setting
  • Scenario Analyses
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Portfolio Stress Testing

Key Features

  • Quantitative forecast model covering more than 1,800 economic variables
    • Incorporates supply and demand drivers, captures seasonal effects
    • Monthly updated forecasts and scenarios
    • Fully documented methodology
  • Coverage of more than 31 million transactions
    • Nearly 1,200 vehicles from 70 manufacturers
    • Data segmented by region and sale type
    • 28 body types like wagon, hatchback or coupe
    • 35 vehicle segments covering cars, SUVs, light trucks and exotics
    • Vehicle color and features detailed to 11-digit VIN including: Body type, Doors, Engine type, Fuel type and Drive type
  • Flexible delivery options
    • Robust web-based platform to view, chart and download residual forecasts
    • Add-in for Microsoft Office to retrieve and update forecasts within Excel, PowerPoint and Word
    • API access for the retrieval of forecasts within your environment
  • Direct access to economists and highly trained relationship management team